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中文摘要: 目的 通过对2006—2015年潍坊市专业卫生人员数变化情况进行分析，建立卫生人员的趋势预测模型，对未来卫生人员的发展趋势做出预测和定量描述。方法 利用回归模型和ARIMA模型预测“十三五”时期潍坊市卫生人员发展情况。[结果]ARIMA模型的BOX-Jenkins建模预测结果显示，除2015年—2016年的增长率为负之外，2016年—2020年的卫生专业人员数及增长率一直呈上升状态。前三年最后的预测结果：76 208，83 957，100 385，增长率分别为-6.06%、10.17%、19.57%，趋势为先下降后上升。结论 ARIMA模型比回归预测模型拟合效果好，ARIMA模型较好地模拟了潍坊市专业卫生人员数在时间序列上的变化趋势，预测结果可为今后卫生决策提供理论和数据支持。
Abstract:OBJECTIVE Through the evaluation and analysis of the number of professional health personnel in Weifang from 2006 to 2015, the trend forecast model of health personnel is established, and the trend of future health personnel is quantitatively described. METHODS This study through the literature review method to understand the research progress both at home and abroad, and use the regression model and ARIMA model predicts that by 2006 to 2020 the Weifang health personnel development. RESULTS According to the ARIMA model's Box-Jenkins modeling method, In addition to the growth rate of 2015 to 2016 is negative, the number of 2016 to 2020 and the growth rate has been rising trend, we can accurately choose the first three years, as our final prediction results: 76208, 83957100, 385, the growth rate is respectively 6.06%, 10.17%, 19.57%, rising trend after the first down. CONCLUSION The ARIMA model is better than the regression model，ARIMA model to simulate the well number of Weifang health professionals in change of time series trend, predicted results can provide
theory and data support for future health decisions.
文章编号：3201712008 中图分类号：R197 文献标志码：
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