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中文摘要: 目的 探究我国疾病控制机构人力资源供给状况，为达到我国疾病控制机构人力资源供需平衡提理论依据。方法 在分析比较灰色预测和神经网络单项预测模型的基础上，采用方差倒数法进行权重分配，构建我国疾病控制机构人力资源的组合预测模型。结果 组合预测模型与单项预测模型相比预测误差小，预测的精度和稳定性更好，可以作为我国疾病控制机构人力资源预测的有效工具。结论 我国疾病控制机构人员数量呈下降趋势，应从加大资金投入，调整专业结构以及建立科学激励机制三个方面入手适当增加我国疾病控制机构人员的数量。
Abstract:OBJECTIVE To analyze on supply situation of Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)in China so as to provide direction to achieve balance between supply and demand of human in CDC in China. METHODS Based on analyzing and comparing grey pre⁃diction and neural network prediction model, reciprocal method was applied to perform distribute the weight so as to set up the combination forecasting model of human resources in CDC in China.RESULTS The combination forecasting model is better than the single forecasting model, since it has minimum prediction error, better accuracy and stability of prediction. The combination forecasting model could be used as an effective tool to predict human resources in CDC in China.CONCLUSION The number of the CDC personnel had declined trend, we should increase the number of personnel of CDC in our country from three aspects:increase financial input, adjust the professional structure, and build scientific incentive mechanism
文章编号：3201805004 中图分类号：R197 文献标志码：
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