Abstract:OBJECTIVE To describe the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Baoan District of Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020， and to construct a series model to predict the incidence trend of influenza in 2021 to provide a scientific basis for the pre⁃ vention and control of influenza. METHODS STATA 15.0SE software was used to collate and analyze the data. A χ2 test was used to compare the incidence of influenza, and the autoregressive moving average mitigation model （ARIMA） was used to predict the trend of influenza incidence in 2021. RESULT From 2010 to 2020, a total of 5 179 influenza cases were reported in two districts of Baoan District with an average annual incidence rate of 50.24/100 000. In 2019, the influenza outbreak occurred （1 380, incidence rate=125.45/100 000）. The annual incidence of influenza was cyclical with the most cases occurring in March （811, 15.6%）. The incidence in females was higher than that in males （2 433, 55.38/100 000 VS 2 756, 49.49/100 000, χ2=14.875, P＜0.05）. The main population categories were workers （1 048, 20.20%） and children （958, 18.40%）. The incidence of influenza occurred in all ages, mainly in the 0~5 years old age group （1 586 cases, 30.60%）, and the highest incidence was in the nurseries and kinder⁃ gartens in the key prevention and control sites （average annual incidence was 6.22/100 000, χ2=1 210.808, P＜0.05）. ARIMA model projections showed a downward trend in the incidence of influenza in 2021 compared to 2020 as a whole. CONCLUSION The incidence of influenza in two streets of Baoan district was decreasing in 2021. Target group of population for influenza prevention and control was workers and children aged 0~5 years. It was recommended to popularize influenza vaccination and strengthen the surveillance and supervision of influenza in factories, nurseries and kindergartens.