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中文摘要: 目的 探索大气二氧化氮(NO2)对苏州市居民肺癌发病、死亡影响的程度和特点，确定滞后时间，评估健康效应。方法 收集2006—2014年苏州市居民肺癌发病、死亡资料，大气污染物和气象数据，采用时间序列的广义相加模型，在控制长期趋势、星期几效应和气象因素的影响后，定量分析单污染物模型和双污染物模型中，大气NO2对肺癌发病死亡人数的影响。结果 单污染物模型中，滞后3天的NO2（lag3）对肺癌日发病数的效应有统计学意义（P=0.03）。随着NO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3，肺癌全人群和女性人群日发病数分别增加1.001%（95%CI：0.075，1.926）和2.541%（95%CI：0.744，4.338）。双污染物模型结果显示，NO2对肺癌发病影响需要和PM2.5相互作用才发挥效应，不受SO2和PM10的影响。结论 苏州市肺癌，特别是女性肺癌发病人数随着大气NO2浓度的增加而呈上升趋势；其影响存在滞后性，需要PM2.5的联合作用才能发挥效应。
Abstract:OBJECTIVE To investigate the level and character of effects of the incidence and mortality of lung cancer and nitrogen dioxide pollution. The lag day should also be ascertained to evaluate the health effect. METHODS Based on the time-series data from 2006 to 2014 in Suzhou , semi-parametric generalized additive models were used to analyze the lag effects of nitrogen dioxide on daily incidence and mortality of lung cancer with control of long -term trend, weekdays’ effect, and weather conditions. RESULTS In a uni-pollutant model, an increase of 10 μg/m3 in 3-lag NO2 (lag3) was associated with 1.001% (95%CI:0.075，1.926) of increase in daily lung cancer incidence ,while 2.541% (95%CI:0.744，4.338) in female population. In a bi-pollutant model, NO2 was not an independent risk factor for lung cancer incidence and played a role in incidence process of lung cancer with PM2.5. CONCLUSION Increasing NO2 pollution may increase incidence of lung cancer in Suzhou, especially in female population. The incidence of lung cancer affected by NO2 presents an obvious hysteretic nature and its influence need joint action of PM2.5.
文章编号：3201810024 中图分类号：R734.2 文献标志码：
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