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中文摘要: 摘 要：目的：分析内蒙古自治区卫生人力资源空间分布格局并预测未来发展趋势，为促进不同盟市卫生人力资源合 理配置和完善“十五五”卫生规划提供参考。方法：选取2014—2023年内蒙古自治区卫生人力资源数据，采用卫生资源 密度指数和增长率对内蒙古自治区卫生人力资源配置进行描述性分析，采用Arcgis 技术进行空间分布格局研究，利用灰色 GM(1,1) 模型开展预测分析。结果：2014—2023年内蒙古自治区卫生人力资源数量稳步增加，其中注册护士数增幅为 78.45%,卫生技术人员和执业(助理)医师增幅分别为51.8%和49.08%;不同盟市间资源配置呈由中心向外围逐步降低 的圈层式分布的特点；灰色模型GM(1,1) 预测2028年内蒙古自治区每千人口卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师和注册 护士数将分别达到11.32人、4.51人和5.09人。结论：内蒙古自治区卫生人力资源数量稳步增长，但不同盟市分布不均衡； 且卫生人力资源结构不合理，医护比有待提升；预测内蒙古自治区卫生人力资源未来发展态势良好。
中文关键词: 关键词：空间分布格局 卫生人力资源 灰色GM(1,1) 模型 内蒙古
Abstract:Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution patterns of healthcare human resources in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and predict future trends,providing reference for optimizing resource allocation acros different leagues and cities and informing “the 15th Five-Year”Health Plan.METHODS Using health human resource data from Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region between 2014 and 2023 as the research sample,descriptive analysis of health resource allocation was conducted using the health resource density index and growth rate.ArcGIS technology was employed to study spatial distribution patterns,and the grey model(GM)(1,1)was utilized for predictive analysis.RESULTS From 2014 to 2023,the quantity of healthcare human resources in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region increased steadily.The number of registered nurses grew by 78.45%,while healthcare technicians and licensed(assistant) physicians increased by 51.8%and 49.08%,respectively.Resource allocation across different leagues and cities exhibited a concentric distribution pattern,decreasing gradually from the center to the periphery.The GM(1,1)projected that by 2028,the number of health technicians,licensed(assistant)physicians,and registered nurses per thousand population in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region would reach 11.32,4.51,and 5.09,respectively.CONCLUSION The quantity of healthcare human resources in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is steadily increasing,but distribution remains uneven across leagues and cities.The structure of healthcare human resources is also imbalanced,with the physician-to-nurse ratio requiring further improvement.The projected future development trend of healthcare human resources in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is favorable.
keywords: Keywords: spatial distribution pattern healthcare human resources grey modelGM(1,1) Inner Mongolia Region
文章编号：3202410006 中图分类号：R197.1 文献标志码：
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