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中国初级卫生保健:2025,39(3):35-38
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北京市某高校社区高血压列线图预测模型构建
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中文摘要: 摘 要:目的:基于北京市某高校职工体检数据,建立该校社区高血压风险预测模型,控制危险因素,将高血压防治关 口前移。方法:以 2022 年在中国农业大学东区社区卫生服务中心参加健康体检的北京市某高校职工为研究对象,对其体检 结果进行统计分析,采用 logistic 回归分析筛选高血压危险因素,R 软件建立高血压风险列线图预测模型,并应用受试者工作 特征 (receiver operating characteristic,ROC) 曲线、校准曲线评估模型。结果:该校 2 456 名职工高血压患病率为 34.4%。年 龄 (41~60 岁 OR=2.589,>60 岁 OR=13.056)、身体质量指数升高 (24.0~27.9 kg/m 2 OR=1.508,≥28.0 kg/m 2 OR=1.868)、 腹型肥胖 (OR=1.441)、高空腹血糖 (≥6.1 mmol/L OR=2.097)、高尿酸血症 (>420 μmol/L OR=1.596) 是发生高血压的 危险因素。应用以上危险因素构建高血压风险列线图预测模型,ROC 曲线下面积为 0.814 (95%CI 为 0.795~0.832),校准图显 示校准曲线与标准曲线贴近,提示该模型有良好的预测能力和稳定性。结论:该校职工高血压患病率高,年龄、超重、肥 胖、腹型肥胖、空腹血糖升高、高尿酸血症是高血压的危险因素。
Abstract:Abstract: OBJECTIVE Based on the physical examination data of employees in a certain university in Beijing, a hypertension risk prediction model for the campus community was established to facilitate hypertension prevention and control. METHODS The physical examination results of employees in the university in 2022 were statistically analyzed, logistic regression analysis was performed to screen hypertension risk factors, and a Nomogram prediction model was established, and receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS 2 456 individuals were included, with the prevalence of hypertension was 34.4% . Age ( 41~60 years old OR=2.589, >60 years old OR=13.056 ), higher body mass index (BMI) ( 24.0~27.9 kg/m 2 OR=1.508, ≥28.0 kg/m 2 OR=1.868), abdominal obesity (OR=1.441), high fasting blood glucose (FBG) (≥6.1 mmol/L OR=2.097), and hyperuricemia (>420 μmol/L OR=1.596) were influencing factors for hypertension. The Nomogram model constructed using these risk factors,its area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.814 (95%CI : 0.795~0.832), and the calibration plot showed that the calibration curve was close to the standard curve, indicating that the model had good predictive ability and stability. CONCLUSION The prevalence of hypertension among employees in the university is high, and age, overweight, obesity, abdominal obesity, high FBG, and hyperuricemia are risk factors for hypertension.
文章编号:3202410008     中图分类号:R541.31    文献标志码:
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陈妍,陈淑珍  
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