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中文摘要: 摘 要：目的：分析2015—2024年天津市武清区猩红热的流行病学特征及其时空分布特征，为制订更加精准的防控措 施提供依据。方法：发病数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统，采用Excel 2016软件对数据进行处理和三间分布描述，采 用 SPSS 17.0 软件对数据进行统计学分析，采用ArcGIS 10.8 软件进行空间自相关分析，采用SaTScan 10.2.5软件进行时空扫 描分析。结果：2015—2024年天津市武清区共报告猩红热病例772例，年均报告发病率为6.62/10万，2024年的发病率最高 (17.28/10万),2022年的发病率最低(0.53/10万)。发病呈现明显季节性，高峰期为每年的4—6月、10月一次年1月。主 要集中在东蒲洼街道、杨村街道和下朱庄街道(434例，占56.22%)。2017年、2021年和2024年天津市武清区猩红热发病 率呈空间正相关，“高-高”聚集区域主要集中在以杨村街道、东蒲洼街道、下朱庄街道和黄庄街道为主的中心城区。时空 扫描分析共探测到4个聚集区域，其中I 类聚集区涉及中心城区的杨村街道、下朱庄街道和黄庄街道，聚集时间为2024年5一 6月。结论：2015—2024年天津市武清区猩红热疫情总体呈波动上升趋势，中心城区街道呈现明显的时空聚集性，应加强对 高发地区和高发人群的健康宣教和疾病监测工作。
Abstract:Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of scarlet fever in Wuqing District of Tianjin from 2015 to 2024,providing a basis for formulating more precise prevention and control measures.METHODS The incidence data were sourced from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System.Data were processed and described using Excel 2016 for spatial distribution,statistical analysis using SPSS 17.0,spatial autocorelation analysis using AreGIS 10.8, and spatiotemporal scanning analysis using SaTScan 10.2.5.RESULTS A total of 772 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Wuqing District of Tianjin from 2015 to 2024,with an average annual incidence rate of 6.62/100,000.The incidence rate in 2024 was the highest(17.28/100,000),while the lowest was in 2022(0.53/100,000).The disease showed a distinct seasonality,with peak periods occurring from April to June and October to January each year.The majority of cases were concentrated in Dongpuwa Subdistrict, Yangcun Subdistrict,and Xiadazhuang Subdistrict(434 cases,accounting for 56.22%).The incidence rates of scarlet fever in Wuqing District,Tianjin in 2017,2021,and 2024showed positive spatial corelation,with “high-high”clusters mainly concentrated in the central urban area,particularly in Yangcun Subdistrict,Dongpuwa Subdistrict,Xiadazhuang Subdistrict,and Huangzhuang Subdistrict.Spatiotemporal scanning analysis detected four clusters,among which the ClassI cluster involved Yangcun Subdistrict, Xiadazhuang Subdistrict,and Huangzhuang Subdistrict in the central urban area,with the cluster period occuring from May to June 2024.CONCLUSION From 2015 to 2024,the epidemic of scarlet fever in Wuqing District of Tianjin showed an overall fluctuating upward trend,and the central urban streets showed obvious spatial and temporal aggregation.Health education and disease survellance should be strengthened in high-incidence areas and high-incidence groups.
文章编号：3202410017 中图分类号：R515.1 文献标志码：
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| 作者 | 单位 |
| 卫沛楠，李平，孙博为 |
| Author Name | Affiliation |
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