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中文摘要: 摘 要：目的：了解南京市玄武区水痘疫苗免疫策略调整前后水痘的流行特征及发病趋势，为进一步优化水痘防控工 作提供参考。方法：收集2015—2024年南京市玄武区水痘报告病例数据，采用描述性流行病学方法分析流行特征，采用 Joinpoint回归模型分析报告发病率的年度变化百分比 (annual percent change,APC) 和平均年度变化百分比 (average APC, AAPC) 。结果：2015—2024年南京市玄武区共报告水痘病例4241例，年均报告发病率为90.16/10万，呈“升-降-升” 的趋势(2015—2018年，APC=131.15,P<0.01;2018—2021 年 ，APC=-18.75,P<0.05;2021—2024 年 ，APC=10.02, P>0.05)。 水痘发病呈季节性双峰分布，5—6月和10月—次年1月为发病高峰。病例以学生(2522例，占59.47%)和 托幼机构儿童(838例，占19.76%)为主，主要集中在20岁以下人群(3176例，占74.89%)。2018年水痘疫苗纳入南京 市地方免疫规划后，(0,4)岁和(5,9)岁儿童水痘发病率呈下降趋势 (APC 分别为-38.54%、-32.47%,P<0.01), 而[15, 19)岁人群发病率在2022—2024年呈上升趋势(APC=43.72%,P<0.01), 出现高发年龄后移的现象。结论：实施免疫策 略调整后，南京市玄武区低年龄儿童水痘发病率显著下降，水痘高发年龄呈后移趋势。建议进一步优化免疫接种策略，提 高易感人群水痘疫苗接种率。
Abstract:Abstract: OBJECTIVE To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of chickenpox in Xuanwu District of Nanjing before and after adjustments to the vaccination strategy,providing insights for optimizing prevention and control measures.METHODS Data from chickenpox cases reported in Xuanwu District of Nanjing from 2015 to 2024were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were employed to analyze epidemiological patterns,with Joinpoint regression models applied to assess annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)in reported incidence rates.RESULTS A total of 4,241 chickenpox cases were reported in Xuanwu District from 2015to 2024,with an average annual incidence rate of 90.16/100,000 cases.The data showed a “rise-fall-rise”trend(from 2015 to 2018 APC=131.15,P<0.01;from 2018 to 2021 APC=-18.75,P<0.05;from 2021 to 2024 APC=10.02,P>0.05).The disease exhibited a bimodal seasonal distribution,with peak incidence in May-June and October-January.Cases were predominantly among students(2,522 cases,59.47%)and preschool children(838 cases,19.76%),with the majority(3,176 cases,74.89%)occurring in individuals under 20 years old.Since the varicella vaccine was incorporated into Nanjing's local immunization program in 2018,theincidence rates among children aged [0, 4)and (5,9)have shown a downward trend(APC=-38.54%,-32.47%,P<0.01),while the incidence rate among the (15,19) age group exhibited an upward trendfrom 2022 to 2024(APC=43.72%,P<0.01),indicating a delayed peak age.CONCLUSION Following the adjustment of immunization strategies,the incidence of chickenpox among young children in Xuanwu District of Nanjing has significantly decreased,with the peak age of infection showing a delayed trend.It is recommended to further optimize vaccination strategies and improve the vaccination coverage rate among susceptible populations.
keywords: Keywords: varicella immunization strategy varicella vaccine epidemiological characteristics Nanjing
文章编号：3202410020 中图分类号：R186 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 程小红，王星辰 |
| Author Name | Affiliation |
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