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中文摘要: 摘 要：目的：分析2019—2023年济宁市食源性疾病的流行病学特征以及病例的时空聚集情况，识别病例高发时间地 区，为制定精准的防控策略和合理配置卫生资源提供依据。方法：通过食源性疾病监测报告系统将2019—2023年济宁市 食源性疾病病例个案信息导出，采用ArcGIS 10.8软件对病例空间自相关性进行展示，采用SaTScan 9.5软件研究济宁市食 源性疾病空间聚集性。结果：2019—2023年济宁市共报告食源性疾病病例390942例，男女比为1.01:1;职业人群以农民 (63.91%,2498631390942)为主，以55~65岁年龄段人数最多(60569例，占比15.49%),发病高峰主要集中在7—9月份， 可疑暴露食品占比最高的是水果类及其制品(25.99%),进食场所主要为家庭(92.53%)。空间自相关分析结果显示，2019 2023年各年度Moran'sI 指数在0.317~0.445之间，差异有统计学意义 (P<0.05), 提示济宁市食源性疾病存在空间聚集性， 聚集区主要分布在汶上县和邹城市。时空扫描分析显示，仅在2023年出现聚集， 一类聚集区涉及微山县、鱼台县，聚集时 间为2023年9月(RR=15.34,LLR=20672.44) 。 结论：济宁市食源性疾病发病高峰主要集中在7—9月，职业以农民为主， 食源性疾病可疑暴露食品主要为水果类及其制品，进食场所主要为家庭。济宁市食源性疾病的发病存在时空聚集性，疾病高 发区在汶上县和邹城市，但是9月份微山县和鱼台县更易发生聚集，应加强食源性疾病的防控。
Abstract:Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering patterns of foodborne diseases in Jining from 2019 to 2023,identify high-incidence regions,and provide a basis for developing targeted prevention strategies and optimizing healthcare resource allocation.METHODS Case data of foodborne diseases in Jining were exported through the “Foodborne Disease Surveillance and Reporting System”from 2019 to 2023.ArcGIS 10.8 software was used to visualize spatial autocorrelation, while SaTScan 9.5 software was employed to investigate spatial clustering.RESULTS A total of 390,942 food borne disease cases were reported in Jining from 2019 to 2023,with a male-to-female ratio of 1.01:1.Farmers(63.91%,249,8631390,942)constituted the majority ofaffected populations,with the highest proportion(15.49%)occuring in the 55-65 age group.The peak incidence period was concentrated between July and September,with fruits and fruit products(25.99%)showing the highest proportion of suspected exposure cases.Most cases occurred in households (92.53%).Spatial autocorelation analysis revealed that Moran's Iindex ranged between 0.317 and 0.445 from 2019 to 2023,demonstrating statistically significant ifferences(P<0.05).Theindicates spatial clustering of foodborne diseases in Jining,with clusters primarily concentrated in Wenshang County and Zoucheng.The spatiotemporal analysis revealed that cluster outbreaks occurred exclusively in 2023,with the first cluster affecting Weishan County and Yutai County in September 2023 (RR=15.34,LLR=20,672.44).CONCLUSION Foodborne disease outbreaks in Jining peak from July to September,predominantly affecting farmers.Suspected exposure occurred mainly through fruits and their processed products,with household consumption being the primary source.The study confirms spatiotemporal clustering patterns,with Wenshang County and Zoucheng being high-risk areas. Notably,Weishan County and Yutai County showed higher susceptibility in September,highlighting the need for enhanced prevention and control measures.
keywords: Keywords: foodborne diseases epidemiological characteristic spatiotemporal scan spatial clustering
文章编号：3202410029 中图分类号：R515.1 文献标志码：
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