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中国初级卫生保健:2025,39(4):51-54
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温岭市戊型病毒性肝炎流行特征分析及预测
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中文摘要: 摘 要:目的:分析 2008—2023 年温岭市戊型病毒性肝炎 (以下简称戊肝) 的感染状况,为温岭市戊肝的预防工作提 供参考依据。方法:选取 2008—2023 年传染病报告信息管理系统中温岭市报告的戊肝病例,采用描述性流行病学方法对 2008—2023 年温岭市戊肝疫情数据进行分析并建立 ARIMA 模型;2021—2023 年分层随机抽取 16 家乡镇卫生院健康人群血 样,用 ELISA 方法检测血清中戊肝病毒 IgG 抗体 (HEV-IgG),并对结果进行描述性流行病学分析。结果:2008—2023 年温 岭市共报告戊肝病例 1 082 例,年均报告发病率为 5.11 /10 万,历年发病率整体呈先上升后下降趋势。每年的第 1 季度和第 3 季度是发病高峰期,2—3 月戊肝报告病例数最多,共报告 209 例,占全部病例的 19.3%。戊肝病例男女性别比为 1.88∶1, 50~59 岁年龄段报告病例数最多。健康人群抗 HEV-IgG 阳性率为 31.81% (标化阳性率为 34.39%),随着年龄增长,阳性率增 高;农民抗 HEV-IgG 阳性率最高,为 41.55%;靠海乡镇居民抗 HEV-IgG 阳性率高于不靠海乡镇居民。ARIMA 模型预测 2024 年 1—12 月温岭市每月戊肝发病率为 0.63/10 万~1.12/10 万。结论:戊肝在健康人群中感染率远超传染病监测系统报告的发病 率,存在显著的季节、性别、年龄、职业、地区差异。
Abstract:Abstract:OBJECTIVE To analyze the infection status of viral hepatitis E in Wenling from 2008 to 2023,to provide reference for the prevention of hepatitis E in Wenling. METHODS Select hepatitis E cases reported in Wenling from the infectious disease report information management system from 2008 to 2023. The date of hepatitis epidemic from 2008 to 2023 were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology and establish Autoregressive integrated moving average model; stratified random sampling of blood samples from healthy people in 16 townships, serum antibodies to hepatitis E virus IgG (HEV-IgG) were detected by ELISA method, and the results were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology. RESULTS 1 082 cases of liver disease E were reported in Wenling from 2008 to 2023. The average annual reported incidence was 5.11/10 5 ,the incidence of hepatitis E increased first and then decreased,the peak incidence was in the first quarter and the third quarter,the most reported cases of hepatitis E occurred in 2~3 months (209 cases, 19.3% ), the case ratio of male to female was 1.88∶ 1, the age group of 50~59 years had the most cases. The anti-HEV IgG positivity rate of the healthy population was 31.81% (standardized positivity rate: 34.39%). The positivity rate increased with age. The highest percentage of positivity were farmers (41.55%). The rate of hepatitis E infection was higher in the region in towns by the sea than in towns not by the sea. The predicted monthly incidence rate of hepatitis E in Wenling from January to December in 2024 was 0.63/10 5 ~1.12 /10 5 . CONCLUSION The infection rate of Hepatitis E in the healthy population far exceeds incidence as reported by the infectious disease surveillance system,with significant differences in season,gender,age, occupation,and region.
文章编号:3202410014     中图分类号:R512.6    文献标志码:
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叶垚 ,张健丽,张宇杰  
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